Quo Vadis America and Germany

By Walter A. Bawell

These days there seems to be a correlation between the Euro, Dollar and Stock Market. When the Euro is up, the Dollar is down and the Stock Market is up. With our 6 hour advance time difference here in Germany, one can check long before the market opens the status of the Euro which often is a harbinger of what to expect in the course of the day, well before the closing bell.

August is a month of sideways trading with September historically a low point for the stock market with a rally towards year end. It remains to be seen if this trend will begin in August and not in September this year.

IT’S THE DEFICIT DUMMY… ALSO “IT’S THE ECONOMY STUPID.”

By Walter A. Bawell

Shortly after the second Iraq, war around the time of “Mission Accomplished” and references to “Old Europe,” I was asked is it true that the current administration think Europe and Germany are irrelevant?

Today, the question is different. In terms of global trade, one could ask: Is the United States relevant? Living beyond our means for these many years has taken its toll on the US dollar and on jobs. With back to back 1.4 trillion dollar deficits in 2009 and 2010, exports aren’t enough to cover imports. We’ve been lucky. As of late there’s been a flight to safe haven Treasury notes. This helps finance US Debt. Thank you very much PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain), but especially Greece. The dollar increased from 67 cents to 79 cents for one Euro from May to June, 2010.

Memories in Leipzig

by Paul Cook October 2007